Argentina’s elections 2015: The beginning of the end?

Sunday, 25 October 2015, was a decisive moment in Argentina. The Pumas, Argentina’s national rugby team, lost in the semis of the 2015 World Cup. Yet, at the voting stations and ballot boxes, something far greater was taking place. Argentines were voting for a new President. The results between the first and second forerunner were so unpredictably close that for the first time in Argentina’s history, voting has gone to a second-round run-off, or balotaje.

This has been one of the most fiercely contested presidential races in a country where politics have become so polarised. The country has become divided by the leftist Peronist movement, Front for Victory (FPV), with incumbent Cristina de Fernández Kirchner at the helm, and the opposition. What Peronism actually is and represents may be a subject for another post.  

Presidential elections Argentina 2015

The opposition

The opposition is most commonly represented by Mauricio Macri, a businessman, and leader of Republican Proposal, PRO. In other words, Macri's party would be the equivalent of the UK Conservative party. Sergio Massa, a former FPV member, formed his own party, Renewal Front, and came a respectable third but is out of the run-off. He would be most like the Liberals in the UK.       

So what's at stake? In a nutshell, from what I understand from friends and what we've seen and heard in the media, several people are desperate for change. After 12 years in power, life under the Kirchners has become hard for ordinary, middle-class people. 

- Inflation is high and estimated to reach about 25% this year (unofficially), although down from unofficial estimates of 40% in 2014 

- Only people who earn above a certain amount are able to convert a certain proportion of their salary into dollars, although they are charged a 20% tax for the privilege

- High export taxes on commodities like soya, one of Argentina's most successful products

- 35% tax on international purchases - we've been stung by this as we soon discovered when we bought an international flight on an Argentine credit card  

I speak as someone who has been in the country for only nine months, so I am no gospel on the matter. Yet, my husband and I have been just as caught up in the ensuing drama as Argentines. 

To win in the first round, the front-runner needed to gain 45% of the vote outright or by 40% and to beat the second-place candidate by at least 10%. In the August primaries, Scioli gained 38.4%, with Macri in second place with just over 30%. Therefore, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Scioli would win outright on Sunday. 

So close

Although many had hoped, few had expected that the results would have been so close, let alone going to a run-off. And this was not just between Scioli and Macri. FPV suffered heavy losses in key provincial posts, especially in Buenos Aires province. To many people's surprise and joy, PRO's María Eugenia Vidal, currently Deputy Mayor of Buenos Aires City, was announced governor. 

Shock, jubilation, tears - the whole spectrum of emotions were felt when it became clear that there would indeed be a run-off. Of course, a run-off seemed so inconceivable that it was scheduled during the bank holiday weekend on Sunday 22 November. So in true Argentine fashion, the current bank holiday has been cancelled, with less than a month's notice, and moved to the following weekend.      

While I have no say in the final outcome, I'm delighted for my friends and for the country overall as change is on its way, irrespective of who wins. The people have spoken and may they do so again on 22 November - with conviction, courage and do what’s right for the country.   

Political violence in Argentina paints an unsettling scene

Argentine politics are either so complicated, controversial or seemingly unreal that I have shied away from commentating on the matter. If politics are a quagmire for ordinary Argentines, then I stand little chance of making sense of it. Except when the front-page story talks about fraud, political violence and police repression. 

   

On Sunday, people in Tucumán province went to the polls to elect a new governor. In contention were the Peronist, Front for Victory candidate Juan Manzur (the incumbent party representative and former Secretary of State) and José Cano, from the opposition Radical Civic Union (UCR) party.

Provisional results showed that Mazur has won the elections with 54.4% of the vote, compared with 40.8% for Cano.

Tension and violence 

However, by Tuesday it emerged that the elections had been fraught with tension and violence. Policemen were injured, shots were fired and it turns out that more than 40 ballot boxes had been burned. One ballot box contained 30 FPV ballots even before voting had started. Meanwhile, a cameraman was attacked for filming food bags being delivered in exchange for votes.

Yesterday, national newspapers carried headlines and pictures showing police heavy-handedly breaking up a peaceful protest against the allegedly fraudulent elections. 

Protestors were confronted with tear gas and rubber bullets, leading to several injuries.

Manzur was quick to claim victory. Cano, on the other hand, has demanded that the ballot boxes be opened and the votes fully recounted.

"Not fraud"

As a bystander, it is unnerving to be living in a country where processes and the rule of law are simply disregarded. Even the national electoral director said yesterday in the national newspaper La Nacion that “burning ballot boxes is not fraud, but another type of crime”. 

Argentines do not take this at face value; they have a long tradition of protesting and are often seen banging their saucepans, as judged by the anti-government protests in 2012. However, it is a worrying sign when protests, especially peaceful ones, and free speech begin to be forcefully repressed.

The final vote counting started yesterday at 6pm local time. One can only hope this is a not a precursor of what could happen in the Presidential elections in October. Argentine politics seem to have become a whole lot messier.  

25th of May 2015: Celebrating independence, personalities... and art

I have stayed clear of Argentine politics, largely because I don’t understand it. Beyond the presidential elections due to take place later this year, and knowing the names of the forerunners, politics here is a labyrinth. So why do I bring up the subject now? Because yesterday was 25^th of May, the 205^th anniversary marking the movement that led to Argentina’s independence from Spain. “But what exactly are they celebrating?” asked an article on the bicentenary five years ago.

A good question, especially in the context of recent events that have shaped Argentina’s society, economics, politics and its view of the world.

Kirchner Culture Centre at night, courtesy of Infobae

For Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, current President of the nation, this will be the last time she presides over the annual commemorations. Not one to be known for her demure stature, she is determined to go down as one of the greats in Argentine politics and turned the focus of this year’s celebrations to herself, unsurprisingly.

In her attempt to leave an enduring legacy, last week she unveiled the Kirchner Cultural Centre, marking 12 years of the Kirchners’ rule since her husband Néstor Kirchner became president in 2003. Housed in the renovated central post office building, it certainly looks impressive. The “Blue Whale”, the heart of the Centre which can seat up to 1,750 people, and the permanent “Nestor Kirchner” room on the second floor are just a couple of the features.

The idea of converting the post office building into a culture centre, originally called the Bicentenary Cultural Centre, was intended to celebrate the bicentenary since independence. In, 2012, the government decided to rename the Centre to the Néstor Kirchner Cultural Centre, and now just simply the Kirchner Cultural Centre (CCCK bordering on the crass perhaps). 

    

According to CFK, the aim of the Centre is to enable all Argentines to access culture, through a wide, diverse and high-quality programme. Judging from the programme over the next two weeks, there is a decent list of educational, arts and music events, notwithstanding the iconic Eva Perón being a prominent subject of discussion.

A noble aim, I agree, and why not create a cultural centre for future generations to enjoy? The cynic in me would say that the Centre bearing the incumbent’s name may be remembered for all the reasons but culture. On the other hand, if 25^th of May is about celebrating independence, maybe some independence from politics is duly welcome. Like I said, I don’t understand Argentine politics.