Argentina’s elections 2015: The beginning of the end?

Sunday, 25 October 2015, was a decisive moment in Argentina. The Pumas, Argentina’s national rugby team, lost in the semis of the 2015 World Cup. Yet, at the voting stations and ballot boxes, something far greater was taking place. Argentines were voting for a new President. The results between the first and second forerunner were so unpredictably close that for the first time in Argentina’s history, voting has gone to a second-round run-off, or balotaje.

This has been one of the most fiercely contested presidential races in a country where politics have become so polarised. The country has become divided by the leftist Peronist movement, Front for Victory (FPV), with incumbent Cristina de Fernández Kirchner at the helm, and the opposition. What Peronism actually is and represents may be a subject for another post.  

Presidential elections Argentina 2015

The opposition

The opposition is most commonly represented by Mauricio Macri, a businessman, and leader of Republican Proposal, PRO. In other words, Macri's party would be the equivalent of the UK Conservative party. Sergio Massa, a former FPV member, formed his own party, Renewal Front, and came a respectable third but is out of the run-off. He would be most like the Liberals in the UK.       

So what's at stake? In a nutshell, from what I understand from friends and what we've seen and heard in the media, several people are desperate for change. After 12 years in power, life under the Kirchners has become hard for ordinary, middle-class people. 

- Inflation is high and estimated to reach about 25% this year (unofficially), although down from unofficial estimates of 40% in 2014 

- Only people who earn above a certain amount are able to convert a certain proportion of their salary into dollars, although they are charged a 20% tax for the privilege

- High export taxes on commodities like soya, one of Argentina's most successful products

- 35% tax on international purchases - we've been stung by this as we soon discovered when we bought an international flight on an Argentine credit card  

I speak as someone who has been in the country for only nine months, so I am no gospel on the matter. Yet, my husband and I have been just as caught up in the ensuing drama as Argentines. 

To win in the first round, the front-runner needed to gain 45% of the vote outright or by 40% and to beat the second-place candidate by at least 10%. In the August primaries, Scioli gained 38.4%, with Macri in second place with just over 30%. Therefore, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Scioli would win outright on Sunday. 

So close

Although many had hoped, few had expected that the results would have been so close, let alone going to a run-off. And this was not just between Scioli and Macri. FPV suffered heavy losses in key provincial posts, especially in Buenos Aires province. To many people's surprise and joy, PRO's María Eugenia Vidal, currently Deputy Mayor of Buenos Aires City, was announced governor. 

Shock, jubilation, tears - the whole spectrum of emotions were felt when it became clear that there would indeed be a run-off. Of course, a run-off seemed so inconceivable that it was scheduled during the bank holiday weekend on Sunday 22 November. So in true Argentine fashion, the current bank holiday has been cancelled, with less than a month's notice, and moved to the following weekend.      

While I have no say in the final outcome, I'm delighted for my friends and for the country overall as change is on its way, irrespective of who wins. The people have spoken and may they do so again on 22 November - with conviction, courage and do what’s right for the country.